Sunday, December 6, 2015

Black Sea Region sitrep - 2015 DEC 06


The Black Sea Region continues to heat up. Here are the latest incidents (arranged from latest to earliest, more or less):

- Turkey complains that a Russian warship "brandished rockets" while passing through the Bosphorus.

- NATO deploys four (4) warships to the Black Sea, including a US GM Destroyer armed with Nuclear Cruise Missiles.

- Latvia accuses Russia of using Syria to cover up her invasion of Ukraine.

- VP Joe Biden visits Ukraine to reiterate US support.

- NATO offers membership to Montenegro.

- Turkey deploys tanks and troops near Mosul, Iraq, at the request of her Iraqi Kurd allies.

- Russia allies herself with Syrian Kurds, Turkey's sworn enemies.

- The British joins the NATO Bombing Campaign in Syria.

- Turkey detains four (4) Russian cargo ships at a Turkish Black Sea port.

- Russia detains five (5) Turkish cargo ships at a Russian Black Sea port.

- Russia stops work on the Turkish Stream pipeline.

- Two (2) Turkish submarines shadow the Russian GM Cruiser Moskva in the Mediterranean.

- Turkish submarine shadows a Russian warship passing through the Bosphorus.


*****************************************
Background:

In early 2014, Putin forcibly annexed Crimea without encountering any significant Ukrainian resistance.

Bouyed by his Crimean success, Putin then moved against Eastern Ukraine. This time around, the Ukrainians decided to make a half-hearted stand. The Russian-led Ukrainian Separatist offensive eventually ran out of steam. But not after dismembering a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine from Kiev. And not after Ukrainian Separatists accidentally shot down a Malaysian airliner with a Russian Buk Missile, killing everyone on board.

Today, both of the abovementioned areas have remained under Russian control.

But recent events indicate that, maybe, for not much longer:

Sunday, 11/22/15 - Ukrainian Nationalists blow up transmission towers that bring power to Crimea. The region has no electricity until now.

Tuesday, 11/24/15 - A Turkish F-16 shoots down a Russian SU-24 for violating her airspace near the Syrian border.

Wednesday, 11/25/15 - A Turkish aid convoy was bombed by Russian planes in Northern Syria (in apparent retaliation for the downing of the Russian SU-24).

Wednesday, 11/25/15 - Ukraine stops buying Russian natural gas and closes her airspace to all Russian aircraft.

Thursday, 11/26/15 - Germany announces that she will send Recon Tornadoes, refuelling planes, and a frigate, to "help protect" the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in its air campaign against ISIS in Syria (hhmmm... what can ISIS do against an aircraft carrier?)

Is there an emerging pattern in this series of events?

I would like to say, yes.

It appears that the Black Sea Region is about to be engulfed by a major conflagration.

Hopefully, this will result in the return to the Ukraine of all the territories she lost to Russia last year...

#BlackSea
#LiberateCrimea
#SU24Downing
#Ukraine
#Turkey
#NATO
#Russia
#Syria
#GeopoliticalGames
#WorldWarIII

Sunday, November 29, 2015

How should Erdogan spend his $3.2 Billion EU windfall?


The European Union (EU) just gave Erdogan $3.2 Billion.

Officially, this money will be used to stop the flow of Syrian Refugees to the EU by sealing Turkey's border with Greece.

The same Syrian Refugee Flow which Putin appears to be trying to increase by prolonging the Syrian Civil War under the guise of running after Islamic State and Al Qaeda Terrorists.

The timing of the EU's $3.2 Billion act of philantrophy appears to be very perfect.

It comes in the heels of the punitive economic sanctions imposed by Putin on Erdogan for the downing of Moscow's SU-24 strike aircraft a few days ago.  Probably the same type of strike aircraft which attacked an early morning market in Syria today. At least 40 civilians (Turkmen?) died in this strike, and the death toll is still expected to rise.

Wanton airstrikes like this is the military version of beating the bush, to drive more refugees (and Terrorists?) in the general direction of the EU (and America).

To sweeten the deal (and further dampen the impact of Putin's economic sanctions on Erdogan?), the EU promised to reconsider Turkey's request for visa-less travel to the  EU, as well as her pending application for EU membership.

How should Erdogan spend his $3.2 Billion windfall?

Merely tightening Turkey's border with Greece will not fully solve the Syrian Refugee problem because it would just mean that most Syrian Refugees will end up living in Turkey. Right now, there are already 2 million Syrian Refugees in Turkey.

The best bet for Erdogan is to set up a Safe Zone in Northern Syria, where refugees can be temporarily protected from the collateral damage coming from the miltary operations of Assad, Putin, Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State.

The Safe Zone should ideally be run by the UN, but should be realisitically protected by NATO firepower.

Beyond the Safe Zone, the fight for the fate of Syria can continue...


#Syria #Turkey #Russia #Erdogan #Putin #Ukraine #LiberateCrimea #GeopoliticalGames #LooneyTerrWatch

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Is Putin about to conduct full-scale Ground Operations in Syria?


It appears that another Iranian Revolutionary Guard General fell at Aleppo today. This would further increase pressure on the Iranians to scale down their involvement in Syria.

Early this month, it was reported that key members of the Revolutionary Guards in Tehran are choosing retirement rather than accept a deployment to Syria.

Once the Iranians are gone, the Lebanese Hizbollah will not be far behind.

But there is no need for Bashir Assad to run for the nearest departure gate yet.

Uncle Putin has just arrived in the neighborhood!

His warships are in place. His warplanes are in place. He allegedly even brought a Typhoon Boomer just to further raise the level of excitement in the neighborhood.

Those pesky Turks tried to give him a dose of discouragement by downing one of his SU-24s.

But he quickly grabbed victory from the jaws of humiliation by installing his latest SAMs in the country. And of course, he has to bring in the Armor and Ground Troops to protect his SAMs too.

So Uncle Putin, what is only lacking now is full-scale Ground Operations.

To be or not to be?

That is the question.

But do not kill us with the anticipation.

We are very much excited to know whether you can do better than Brezhnev and Andropov.

When they invaded that place called... 

Afghanistan.


#Syria
#LiberateCrimea
#SU24Downing
#Ukraine
#GeopoliticalGames
#WorldWarIII

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Is the Black Sea Region about to be engulfed by a major conflagration?


In early 2014, Putin forcibly annexed Crimea without encountering any significant Ukrainian resistance.

Bouyed by his Crimean success, Putin then moved against Eastern Ukraine. This time around, the Ukrainians decided to make a half-hearted stand. The Russian-led Ukrainian Separatist offensive eventually ran out of steam. But not after dismembering a significant chunk of Eastern Ukraine from Kiev. And not after Ukrainian Separatists accidentally shot down a Malaysian airliner with a Russian Buk Missile, killing everyone on board.

Today, both of the abovementioned areas have remained under Russian control.

But recent events indicate that, maybe, for not much longer:

Sunday, 11/22/15 - Ukrainian Nationalists blow up transmission towers that bring power to Crimea. The region has no electricity until now.

Tuesday, 11/24/15 - A Turkish F-16 shoots down a Russian SU-24 for violating her airspace near the Syrian border.

Wednesday, 11/25/15 - A Turkish aid convoy was bombed by Russian planes in Northern Syria (in apparent retaliation for the downing of the Russian SU-24).

Wednesday, 11/25/15 - Ukraine stops buying Russian natural gas and closes her airspace to all Russian aircraft.

Thursday, 11/26/15 - Germany announces that she will send Recon Tornadoes, refuelling planes, and a frigate, to "help protect" the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in its air campaign against ISIS in Syria (hhmmm... what can ISIS do against an aircraft carrier?)

Is there an emerging pattern in this series of events?

I would like to say, yes.

It appears that the Black Sea Region is about to be engulfed by a major conflagration.

Hopefully, this will result in the return to the Ukraine of all the territories she lost to Russia last year...


#LiberateCrimea
#SU24Downing
#Ukraine
#GeopoliticalGames
#WorldWarIII

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Can Putin really Nuke the Turks?


Moscow talking heads have allegedly hinted at the possibility of deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Syria in reaction to the downing of a Russian SU-24 by Turkey.

Is this a not-so-subtle threat by Putin that he will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Turkey if the latter further obstructs Moscow's designs on Syria?

In an all-out conventional war with Turkey in Syria, Moscow has very little chance of prevailing. The Turks are well-armed and knows a thing or two about war too. Moscow's only chance is to use nuclear weapons.

It appears that Moscow has come prepared for this eventuality. She has already stationed a Typhoon boomer with 200 ICBM nuclear warheads off the coast of Syria. And I will not be surprised at all if she has already secretly moved a considerable number of tactical nuclear weapons into the country too.

But while the Russian Bear has been noisily trashing the vegetation lately from Georgia, to Crimea, and now Syria, the American Eagle and the British Lion have been considerably more quiet.

Which is a bit unusual considering the overwhelming edge in nuclear firepower they have over Moscow.

And there's the French too. Who has her own stash of nuclear thunderbolts in her closet.

Finally, let us not overlook the Sunni Bomb in the hands of the Pakistanis. They are maybe primitive by Western standards, but they are still Nukes.

So seriously, can Putin really Nuke the Turks and not expect to get vaporized in a hail of retaliatory nuclear firestorms?

I highly doubt it...


#SU24Downing
#GeopoliticalGames
#NuclearArmaggedon
#Doomsday

The Turks finally had enough of Putin's bullying?


Ankara has long seethed at the various military (mis)adventures that Bloodymir Putin has launched along her borders.

First was Chechnya.

Next Georgia.

Then Crimea.

Now Syria.

But the straw that finally broke the Turkish Camel's back was probably the sight of Iranian F-14 Tomcats escorting Russian bombers over the skies of Syria.

Finally, the Turks have had enough. And the downing of Russia's SU-24 is Ankara's wake up call to Bloodymir.

And Bloodymir may have met his match.

Behind Ankara stand Uncle Sam and NATO.

And the entire Sunni World. All 800 million of them.

Bloodymir is about to face the biggest challenge to his bullying career.

Hopefully, he will not take down the whole world with him in the process...


#GeopoliticalGames
#SU24Downing
#NATO
#LiberateCrimea
#F14Tomcat

Monday, November 23, 2015

Iranian F-14 Tomcats are now escorting Russian bombers over the skies of Syria...


It has just been reported that Iranian F-14 Tomcats are now escorting Russian bombers over the skies of Syria.

This is a big coup for the Iranians.

Normally, Israel would not tolerate such close proximity to her borders of any Iranian warplane.

But times have changed.

The recent shenanigans of ISIS supporters in Paris have temporarily tied the hands of Israel in the court of World Opinion. And the Iranians are exploiting this situation to the max.

How long will this last?


#LooneyTerrWatch
#F14Tomcat
#GeopoliticalGames

Sunday, November 22, 2015

B-17s, B-52s and Leper Colonies - Dr. Strangelove symbolisms and the Philippines...



What is wrong with this picture?

Well, it is the picture of a B-52 Strafortress in ground-skimming flight. But its trailing ground shadow, is that of a WWII B-17 Flying Fortress!

This picture was taken from Stanley Kubrick's dark Doomsday comedy, "Dr. Strangelove". It is a picture of "Leper Colony", the B-52 which triggered the end of the world in the movie.

When Dr. Strangelove was being made in the early 1960s, the B-52 was a top-of-the-line aircraft not available to civilian film-makers. So the Film's Arctic flight footage was taken using a B-17. And its shadow is the one visible on the ground. The Leper Colony was just a B-52 scale model composited into the B-17 flight footage. The footage was sped up to create a sense of jet speed.

This picture contains a lot of symbolisms vis-a-vis the Philippines.

During the opening days of WWII, the US used the B-17 Flying Fortress to defend the Philippines against a Japanese invasion. It was also used by Gen. Douglas MacArthur and Philippine Commonwealth President Manuel Quezon to fly to Australia, to avoid Japanese capture.

Currently, the US is using the B-52 Stratofortress to challenge the creeping invasion of the South China Sea territories of the Philippines by the Chinese.

The Philippine territories currently being invaded by the Chinese are right next to the island of Culion, where the US Colonial Government of the Philippines once established and maintained the largest Leper Colony in the world.

Are these just uncanny coincidences?


#WestPhilippineSea
#NineDashLineFraud
#OccupyPanatagShoal
#ChinaGoHome
#Spratlys
#DrStrangelove
#LeperColony

Monday, November 16, 2015

I found a Discover Card on the streets of New Jersey...


I just found a Discover Card on the streets of New Jersey.  Almost right in front of a convenience store.

It looks like it was just recently dropped.  It has no sign of street damage at all.

The card owner is  a male with a Hispanic name.  Maybe, he is even Filipino.

So I reported it to Discover (which was easy because I have a Discover card too).  After taking down the card number, the helpdesk lady said I can go ahead and destroy it.

I guess the card owner was a bit lucky that I was the one who found it.

If the card has a significant amount of available credit and itchy hands found it, by the time the owner discovers and reports it as lost, he would have already owed a mountain of debt which he never actually borrowed.

It happened to me before...


#HoneyBadgerWay

Saturday, November 14, 2015

Where were Ronda Rousey's leg kicks?


I was just watching a bunch of sports talking heads explain why Ronda Rousey lost to Holly Holm via KO.

Their explanations all sounded convincing  until they showed some video clips of the fight. And that's when I realized that they missed the essence of Ronda's loss big time.

In all of the video clips shown, I did not see Ronda throw even a single leg kick (Holly actually managed to sneak in a few). Yes, you heard that right. Not a single one.  And she is up against a boxer. Fighters who are not used to being struck below the belt. 

Instead, Ronda was her usual self, trying to swarm her opponent with a flurry of headhunting haymakers, or closing the distance to enable her to deploy her superior submission skills.

While this strategy has worked wonders for her in the past against non-boxer opponents, this time around, she was facing a full-pledged boxer. Yet, amazingly, her Coaching Team appears to have failed miserably to guide and train her to make the adjustment.

So poor Ronda ended up eating counterpunches from Holly all night.  While Holly deftly evaded with superior footwork all her desperate and sometimes clumsy attempts to land a haymaker or close the distance and grapple.

To add insult to injury, it was not even a punch which put an end to Ronda's unbeaten winning streak. It was a good old-fashioned roundhouse kick.

If the best female MMA fighter in the world gets knocked-out by a kick from a boxer, that speaks volumes about the strategic capabilities of her Coaching Team.

So Ronda. Next time you tangle with Holly Holm, make sure that you neutralize that superior footwork first. And the only way to do that is through leg kicks. Lots of them.  

Once those legs get numbed, that's the time you move in for the kill.

And please take a second look at your Coaching Team. If they missed a basic strategy like that in a crucial fight, this will not be the last time they will fail you.

As to your boxing skills, I'm sure you have heard of the boxing coach who calls himself... Freddie Roach...

#RondaRousey
#UFC
#MMA
#MuayThai
#MartialArts
#HoneyBadgerWay

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Are Snipers cowards?

 
 
A notorious publicity hound and rabid Anti-2nd Amendment Crusader whose family name starts with the letter "M" (I am overtly refusing to give him any additional publicity mileage through this post by refusing to write down his full family name) has been hugging the headlines lately for making the ridiculous claim on Twitter that snipers are actually "cowards".  According to him, they are "cowards" because:

1. They shoot people on the back; and
2. A sniper killed his uncle in WWII.

My first reaction was to rebut M's "shoot-people-in-the-back" claim. But after giving it some careful thought, I changed my mind.  I would like to believe that it is already obvious to anyone with some semblance of common sense that the ridiculous claim is the work of a sniping ignoramus.
 
I also refuse to be dragged into an argument involving M's late uncle.  After all, the old chap paid the ultimate price for this country.  Discussing the sins of the nephew might unintentionally tarnish the  heroism of the uncle.
 
The best way to approach this issue is clinically.  What really is a sniper?  What personal qualities must one possess in order to be become one?
 
Here are the personal qualities that a candidate to the U.S. Army Special Forces sniper school must possess:
 
1.   Experience as a hunter or woodsman;
2.   Experience as a competitive marksman;
3.   Interest in weapons;
4.   Ability to make rapid, accurate assessments and mental calculations;
5.   Ability to maintain an emotionally stable personal life;
6.   Ability to function effectively under stress;
7.   Possession of character traits of patience, attention to detail, and physical endurance;
8.   Ability to focus completely;
9.   Ability to endure solitude;
10. Objectivity to the extent that one can stand outside oneself to evaluate the situation;
11. Ability to work closely with another individual in confined spaces and under stress;
12. Freedom from certain detrimental personal habits such as the use of tobacco products and alcohol; and
13. First-class APFT scores with a high degree of stamina and, preferably, solid athletic skills and abilities.
 
Can someone with a "cowardly" personality meet these qualifications?

You be the judge...
 
#AmericanSniper #Sniper #Sniping #SOTIC #ChrisKyle #OneShotOneKill #SpecialForces

 

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Never give up!


Learn from the Honey Badger.

Just because you are in a Lion's jaw (and there are three more Lions waiting for their turn to grab a piece of you)... it does not automatically mean that it's already the end of the world...

A strike... is a strike!... is a strike!

How effective it will be.... is all entirely up to you...


#TheHoneyBadgerWay #HoneyBadger #Lions #NeverGiveUp

A target-rich environment...


#TheHoneyBadgerWay #HoneyBadger #TargetRichEnvironment #Military

Lions are overrated...


#TheHoneyBadgerWay #HoneyBadger #Lions

Honey Badger crossing...


#HoneyBadger #TheHoneyBadgerWay

Shit happens!


#ShitHappens #HoneyBadger #TheHoneyBadgerWay

I like Cobras...


#Cobras #HoneyBadger #TheHoneyBadgerWay

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

How (not) to drive in the Snow... er Blizzard...

 
It was sometime in the middle of February.  I was barely 2 weeks in-country.  I have never experienced a snowfall before. Much less driven in one.
 
I was in a work location about 18 miles from home. We received word the day before that there will be a blizzard that day. So I was not really caught with my pants down.
 
At about 10 in the morning, snow began to fall. By 5 PM, about 4 inches have already fallen. And it still continued to fall like crazy
 
Fearful for our safety, the one in-charge gave us the option to stay in a hotel for the night at the Company's expense.
 
But I decided not to let this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to drive in a full-blown blizzard slip by me in exchange for some fancy room in  a 4-star hotel. So I concocted this flimsy excuse that 18 miles is not really that far, and I am used to this driving condition... blah... blah... blah... (must have made all of them wonder from the hell where?).
 
The new guy, who only lives about 5 miles further than me, followed my cue and decided to make a go for it too.  At about 6 PM, the two of us were given permission to take off.
 
At the freeway entrance ramp, a totally unfamiliar landscape of endless white and swirling snow greeted me. Not a single vehicle was on the road. I decided to stop. Mr. New Guy just drove on. That is where we parted ways.
 
I have a simple plan. I will wait for the first big vehicle to pass by and tail it. Not only will it pack the snow ahead of me, I reckon that its more powerful headlights (and more experienced driver) will help me avoid trouble down the road. If it stops, I stop. If it rolls, I will still have to stop (of course, unless I want to roll too).
 
About three minutes passed before I saw the headlights of a big rig approaching. As soon as it passed in front of me, I went for its six. I was barely able to make out the letters "USPS" painted on the back of its 20-foot container. The mailman surely delivers the mail in this country.
 
And my plan worked. It was like having your own personal snow plow in front of you. All I have to watch out for the rest of the way was the truck's brake lights. Every time it glowed  red, I stepped on the brakes. But I never had to worry about sliding on the snow during the entire way.

Sure, the journey was grindingly slow (it took about a hour and a half instead of the usual 30 minutes). But I made it home in one piece.

Of course, there is no such thing as a free lunch (or a free ride through a blizzard for that matter).  Tailing a big rig has its down side too. My car was covered with dirty snow from bumper to bumper. 

Mr. New Guy was not as fortunate. His luck ran out at the exit ramp. He slid off the ramp and got buried in a big pile of snow. And ended up calling for towing service. He took a personal leave the following day...
     

Sunday, January 4, 2015

My Indonesian F-16 Fighting Falcon patch... and Air Asia QZ8501


I got this patch just before Christmas.

According to the seller, it is an Indonesian patch.  I did not yet have time to research the veracity of the seller's claim, but since I have personally seen Indonesian Air Force F-16s do aerial maneuvers near the Madiun Air Base, I just accepted the claim at face value (for now).

In all likelihood, this is a US-made patch issued to Indonesian fighter pilots during their F-16 flight training here in the US.

Judging by the quality of the embroidery of the patch, I would say that this was made sometime in the late 80s or early 90s.

Initially, I just paid scant attention to this patch. 

And then Air Asia Flight QZ8501 disappeared. And I learned that its Indonesian pilot was a former F-16 fighter  pilot.

He would have been issued a patch just like this.

Uncanny coincidence...


Saturday, January 3, 2015

Lockheed's C-130 Hercules - the "Hero" in the search for Air Asia QZ8501

 
According to published accounts, several aircraft types participated in the search for Air Asia QZ8501.  These included the recon version of the Boeing 737, the P-3 Orion, the P-8 Poseidon (another Boeing 737 variant), the Indonesian-made CASA/IPTN CN-235, and the Lockheed C-130 Hercules.
 
But the C-130 Hercules beat them all.
 
The first confirmed sighting of wreckage from QZ8501 was made by an Indonesian C-130 Hercules.  The pilots attributed this to the C-130's loitering power.  Theoretically, a C-130 can stay on the air for up to 14 hours (the P-3 Orion, another Lockheed aircraft, can actually stay longer - up to 16 hours).  So when the Indonesian Air Force's Boeing 737 and CN-235s already have to head home to re-fuel, the C-130 was still up there continuing the search.
 
But what led the pilots to the crash site might be the stuff of legends.  It was a blue heart-shaped balloon floating in the middle of the Java Sea.  The kind normally found in the last-minute gift shops of airports.
 
When they found another floating heart-shaped balloon (this time, a maroon one), they were convinced that they are in the general area of the crash site.
 
Eventually, they were able to identify the silhouette of what looks like an aircraft under only about 100 feet of water.
 
And the rest, as they always say, is history.
 
Not bad for an aircraft which first flew in 1954...